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#ge2010 – Prognostication

May 5th, 2010 | Posted by Aosher in Politics | Politics - UK | Thorough Wonkiness

I PREDICT that the Tories will edge a tiny majority – 4-5 seats tops.*

I PREDICT that the Lib Dems will do well but nowhere near the giddy heights of mid April – 25% or thereabouts seems fair. Labour will come second by a thread.

I PREDICT that the next government, no matter what the outcome tomorrow, will have collapsed or been wound up within 18 months.

I PREDICT that the winner of this election will make themselves so unpopular that they will not win another election this decade.

*If they don’t, then I’d be prepared to bet that they still govern – either minority or in exchange for electoral reform.

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