I feel really sorry for Gordon Brown today…
April 28th, 2010 | Posted by in General…so to avoid talking about it, I’m going to exercise my blogger’s prerogative to write about something else that interests me instead.
Photo credit: me
Matt Yglesias calls it the most important story no-one’s paying attention to. I think that’s a bit strong but certainly the question of what exactly happened in the waters off of Baengnyeong Island are being underreported and underexamined, especially here in election-fixated Britain.
The bare facts of the case are that a South Korean warship, the ROKS Cheonan to be exact, was sunk nearly a month ago not far away from the disputed maritime border with the North. 46 crew members went down with it. North Korea has denied any involvement, but the denial is starting to look implausible; investigators have determined that the explosion was likely external. The US Military, with typical restraint, has already jumped to the obvious conclusion; definitive proof is elusive and unlikely to be forthcoming.
That said, the range of alternative potential explanations is limited. The North appears to be quite content to ratchet up the stakes; last week the government in Pyongyang announced that it was confiscating South Korean owned property in a jointly-owned venture close to the border. Obviously missing, however, is a motive. Opaque as North Korean internal politics are, it’s hard to see what benefit the sinking would have. Speculation abounds that one of the North’s top generals has been promoted as a result of the operation, however, so if the North did do it then it was certainly planned. Outlandish theories abound (was it a manned kamikaze torpedo?!) but the truth is unlikely to surface any time soon.
The US and ROK governments are both playing their cards close to their chests. A resumption of hostilities is unlikely but possible. The government of South Korea doesn’t really want a war; it’s a rich, comfortable country now, and has a lot to lose, not to mention the problems that winning against (and thus having to govern) a poor, underdeveloped neighbour would bring. Alternatives exist, complicatedly; Kim Hyun-soo, professor of international law at Inha University lists three (namely: take it to the UN security council; try the International Court of Justice; or impose a unilateral blockade on the North). Julian Ku at Opinio Juris evaluates thus:
The first option seems no problem, except that it is hard to get the Security Council to do anything. The second option is a problem since, well, North Korea has not accepted the compulsory jurisdiction of the ICJ. The third option seems the most interesting, but it is also the most complicated one legally. The Koreas are in a state of cease-fire. But blockades, at least in theory, are not permitted under the U.N. Charter except when authorized by the Security Council (see U.N. Charter Art. 42). The 1962 U.S. “quarantine” of Cuba was carefully not called a blockade to avoid this legal problem. I suppose South Korea could end the cease-fire, initiate hostilities, and institute the blockade as part of its right of self-defence. Now that would be legally defensible, although it would probably start an all out (maybe even nuclear) war. So let’s hope they go with option 1.
Whichever option they go with will cause a sharp response from the North, which has been rumbling about a third nuclear trial for months. It’s a thorny, intractable problem, and the Korean peninsula is unlikely to see any peace soon.
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Yeah, there’s been a bit of commentary on Russian blogs/news on this. There seems to be some worry that North Korea will keep on ramping up and pushing if it can and it will have to be met with a military response.
I am not sure that takes into account how unlikely S. Korea is to go for it. But who knows?
One thing that I didn’t mention in the post is that South has municipal elections coming up. The government may find itself forced to act if it becomes an election issue… and if a report does eventually make its way out suggesting that it was the North wot dun it then that could be a distinct possibility.
There are suggestions that it could have been an old mine left over from the Korean war, rather than a torpedo fired from a North Korean sub.
Either way, I’d be surprised if the South ever came out and blamed the North, even if they did find evidence. From the reports I’ve read the South really don’t want to have to make a decision if it turned out the North did fire on them.
While I know very little about that area of the world it does strike me that there’s not much beyond a war that they can do and seeing how North Korea can be pretty erratic at times it wouldn’t surprise me if this was just pushed under the rug. South Korea have a load of foreign investors that I’m sure wouldn’t look to kindly on a war.
Smurf: I would be betting very heavily on “torpedo” at this point; no mine from the first Korean War has been discovered since 1986, and a new mine doesn’t make a lot of sense (a single mine would have to be fantastically lucky, and no other mines appear to have been found).
There’s a good analysis here on the likely domestic impact in South. The synopsis, which I broadly agree with, is that the South will find ways of passive-aggressively exacting revenge.
Interesting article, thanks. I was drawn the mine suggestion because I can’t see why North Korea would do this. A BBC article suggested that if this was a deliberate attack by the North then why wasn’t there a mobilising of troops by the North awaiting the response from the South. If you’re going to sink a ship then surely you’d be preparing for a response. Why would they sink a South Korean ship and then turn round and deny they did it? I don’t see what they get out of this other than bragging rights to their own people, but there doesn’t seem to have been any of that. The same BBC article suggested this could be the military operating independantly which frankly terrifies me.
If the worst did happen and a war broke out could the South depend on outside support? Are the US and UK too involved in the Middle East to jump in? Granted I don’t see the Navy having a massive role in the current wars so could maybe spare a few ships. Also, where would China and Russia fall in any war?
I know it’s unlikely as any evidence of what caused the explosion will have been swept away long ago by any currents. Unless by a strange bit of good (or bad, depending on view point) luck a piece of it managed to lodge itself in the ship.
I don’t know for what Kim Jung Il is always stirring up crises. I guess he’s a loose cannon (both figuratively and literally!). Any mentally stable leader would recognize that it’s not good to be on the verge of war for no reason.